KKP raised its GDP forecast this year to grow by 2.7% but

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Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group by KKP Research revised its forecast for the Thai economy from 2.0% to 2.7% in line with the less-than-estimated impact of the new outbreak and export recovery. The new outbreak that started in December ended earlier than expected. As a result, the impact on the Thai economy in the first quarter was lower than estimated.


Previously, KKP Research had downplayed under the assumption that the new COVID-19 outbreak could last up to a quarter.However, according to the latest data, the impact of the new outbreak is much less than วิธียิงปลาให้ได้เงิน estimated. In addition, the situation of the epidemic resolves quickly and the relief measures that have seen a clearer direction since February. Therefore, there is an opportunity to see the consumption and investment return again after this period.


For the tourism sector It is seen that throughout the year '64 foreign tourists are likely to return to the country in limited numbers. And revised the number of tourists forecasts down again from 2 million to 1 million due to the relatively slow current situation of vaccination in Thailand.


Considering all the changes, KKP Research raised its GDP forecast from 2.0% to 2.7% growth, but the improvement in the level of recovery is still a very slow recovery compared to the previous year's contraction and is still in the state. Levels are lower than pre-COVID growth trends


KKP Research argues that the Thai economy is one of the most affected in the year '20 and that by the year '64 it will be one of the slowest to recover. It is the opposite of the world economy that is about to recover strongly. It means that what Thailand is facing is becoming "The country economy is tight. In the world of inflation ”which is facing major risks. Due to the price of various raw materials such as crude oil, which has risen past $ 70 / barrel in the past, the result is that the cost of production of Thai products is on the rise. While the economy has not yet recovered.


As the global oil price rises, another impact on Thailand is the impact on the country's trade surplus, which will be smaller. In the past 63 years, Thai exports have contracted considerably. And tourism income disappeared But Thailand still has a current account surplus because of severe imports. But look forward Exports have not expanded much. While the import is likely to adjust to normal for some time. Together with the rising oil price May cause the current account surplus level of Thailand to decline. KKP Research estimates that from all factors, the baht has a chance of depreciation in the range of 31.50-32.00 baht / US dollar.